TechSector

IPTV Hardware and Subscriber Revenue

Here are some of my projections through 2010 on IPTV set-top box and subscriber service revenue.  Notice the growth in the number of subscribers - a large portion of these are expected to be from China. 

ECRI Declares a Recession

The Economic Cycle Research Institute has declared the US economy to be in recession.  This is six weeks after I declared the same on TechSector, and pinpointed the start of the recession to be December 2007.   

The ECRI is the most reliable source of predicting and declaring recessions and recoveries, due to a 100% success rate of their track record. 

But this question is now in the past.  The question to ask now is, when will there be a recovery? The two longest recessions in modern history were each 16 months in duration.

Internet Traffic, 2005-2010

The New York Times published a chart from Cisco Systems that projects estimated Internet traffic growth through 2010.  Of course, Cisco has the most to gain from showing very high growth in traffic, but this is still a slower rate of growth than was seen in the 1990s, indicating some maturity in terms of new Internet users worldwide.

This confirms my proprietary forecasts on world Broadband subscribers and average household Broadband speeds very nicely.  The growth in household Broadband speeds may still not be fast enough to swallow the increase in terabytes of traffic between now and 2010. 

All this is good news not just for networking companies, but for content providers, PC makers, cellphone makers, search engines, etc.  Keep in mind that Internet traffic growth is driven not just by new Internet users (only 1 billion out of 6.5 billion people have used the Internet to date), but also the fact that video files can be produced, duplicated, and distributed infinitely.